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DemiSinz stated it shout that it didnt matter what the item was it had the same chance to upgrade then flamed me when I disagreed basing his argument on anacdotal evidence of a couple of high lvl upgrade successes.

I have played this game a long while and made many upgrades, only in numbers can you form any sort of feeling about success rates with different items because short term luck is a huge factor.

I have made many noob items for farmers, things like +8 gisarm (I started with 5 gisarm +0 and upgraded all to +1 all to +2 all to +3 etc etc untill I was left with just one item at +8) Lvl 25 two hand sword I had similar experience...I started with a small number and made to +7 using town black smith.

Given that DT gives higher success rate I have made many upgrades there...tending to be higher lvl items with far less success than I have had on the low lvl items using the town BS. If what DemiSinz thinks is true then this should not be the case.

For example it took me about 40 sallet +4 to obtain 2 sallets +7. It took about 40 salvation fans +4 to make one +7 and from a large number of ecstatic boots none made it to +7 (I failed 12 pairs +6 in a row to +7)

To give abuse over shout saying things like "Bullshyt" is not very scientific, I think it is only reasonable to believe that higher lvl items have a smaller success rate than lower lvl items. Again from personal experience I failed SSB +0 to +1 three times in a row using blessing scroll...no other item have I failed +0 3 times in a row. Obviously on the better higher lvl items it is wise to use master compass +20% success rate...this would offset the higher rate of failure and safeguard from losing items.

I work in the gaming industry where superstition is rife. People assume that if a roulette wheel comes up black 5 times in a row then there is a greater chance of it coming out red next spin. This is untrue because the wheel cannot remember what the last outcome was, it will always be 50/50 - 1/37th for zero which is a green number.

Also from playing a vaste amount of poker I know that natural variance goes in runs, and that only over a huge sample does luck even out. This often taints peoples impressions of reality and the human susceptability to form patterns even in random outcomes.

On the old forums there was a thread giving % of success for upgrades, this actually stated that depending what upgrade materials were required affected the success rate...it stated that clam upgrades and white pearl upgrades had a lower percentage to succeed than others. It is one explaination, I do not know if it is true but I would say that certainly some upgrades seem easier than others based on a large number of attempts.

Just because I got lucky upgrading a ssb from +7 to +8 first attempt is no reason for me to assume that this upgrade has a high rate of success...it simply is not scientific to base my beliefs on such a small sample size.

There is also a case that certain characters are luckier than others...at first I believed this to be merely a superstition but from my experience of socketing stones I know that my main succeeded 1 in 10 stones and that a low lvl that I use now to try such things has succeeded 1 in 3 times. Both of these numbers from sample sizes of well over 200 attempts.

Old lady seems to have no bearing - in fact she even says that her readings are for entertainment only. Perhaps she does effect the drop rates on items...IDK I dont ever bother asking her my luck.

Anyway since I have been called "a FKin idiot" on shout for this logical interpretation of upgrading I thought I would put my thoughts here for you to discuss. Don't bother flaming because I won't be responding...I just thought I would set the subject open for discussion curious to see what you people believe.